Financial analysis firm Cantor Fitzgerald released a report on Wednesday which estimates that Arizona, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Connecticut will legalize recreational cannabis sales in the next two years.
Analyst Pablo Zuanic calculates that these new states will add $3.5 billion in market potential for cannabis MSOs and other smaller players.
New Jersey
Perhaps the state with the best chance of legalization is the Garden State. In December, New Jersey's two legislative houses voted very decisively in favor of putting a constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would legalize recreational marijuana. Similar to the other states to have OK'd the recreational consumption and sale of adult-use weed, adults 21 and over would be allowed to purchase cannabis, and an excise tax would be collected on all sales.
The nationwide coronavirus outbreak could set back cannabis legalization efforts along the East Coast and elsewhere, raising further questions about the launch of lucrative new adult-use and medical markets in New York and other states.
Those potential markets, if launched, could generate billions of dollars in business opportunities for a range of marijuana companies.
But the outlook for legalization in those places now seems up in the air.
Today, talk of legalization knows no bounds. Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have reportedly flirted with the idea of forming a "bloc" that will legalize adult-use marijuana at the same time and by imposing the same statutory scheme. Activists are pushing measures to put legalization on the ballot in 2020 in Arizona, Arkansas, Montana, and Oklahoma.
Here are three factors to keep in mind as states address either recreational or medical legalization this year:
South Dakota won't be alone come November
Although South Dakota will offer the most original marijuana vote to date, it's certainly not going to be the only state with major cannabis implications.
New Jersey
If there's one state that stands head and shoulders above the rest in terms of likelihood to legalize adult-use marijuana in 2020, my vote goes to New Jersey.
A number of states aim to legalize adult-use cannabis in 2020
However, this hasn't stopped individual states from legalizing cannabis in some capacity over the past 23 years. Beginning with California in 1996, a grand total of 33 states have legalized medical marijuana. Of these 33 states, 11 have passed legislation allowing for the legal consumption and/or sale of recreational weed. And this could be just the beginning.
The numbers 11 and 33 come up quite often when the topic of marijuana legalization is discussed. Currently, 11 U.S. states allow the legal use of recreational marijuana, while 33 states have legalized medical cannabis. But those numbers could soon change.
Nine states could be on track to hold key votes on some form of marijuana legalization in 2020. Here are the states that could be next on the marijuana map -- and the stocks that could be poised to profit the most.
The stock of U.S. cannabis seller Harvest Health & Recreation was up 5% on Tuesday, after the company reported strong growth and discussed its high hopes for the future. In early afternoon trading on the U.S. OTC Market, the stock (ticker: HRVSF.OTC) was at $10.05. Harvest shares also trade on the Canadian Securities Exchange. The stock is up more than 90% this year.
“This industry is at a unique inflection point,” Chief Executive Steve White said in a conference call. “We’re still early in the game.”